US election special
Alongside the coronavirus pandemic, the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 is currently one of the biggest factors influencing the capital markets. This is because whichever way the political pendulum swings – leaving either the Democrats or Republicans in power – the result will have far-reaching consequences.
Find out more on our special page dedicated to the latest developments and analysis surrounding the US election.
The key questions on the US election at a glance:
- What are the conceivable outcomes for the election? And how does Union Investment anticipate that these different scenarios will play out in the capital markets?
- Given the high proportion of postal ballots and the prospect of a contested election, can we even expect to have a prompt result?
One election, three conceivable scenarios
Union Investment has analysed three conceivable outcomes and their implications for the capital markets.
As of 26 September 2020
The US election and the capital markets: our assessments
No matter which way the election goes, it will have an impact on the capital markets. You can read our assessments here.
US elections: Biden sweep looking more likely
The latest US election polls are pointing towards a win for President Donald Trump’s opponent Joe Biden. The risk of the result being challenged is receding as the chances of Biden winning and the Democrats securing a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate grow.
US election: Trump trailing behind
Donald Trump returned to the White House last week. As expected, the US President is trying to regain control of the election campaign with a flurry of statements designed to sway undecided voters. The markets, however, are already anticipating who will win.
Coronavirus dominates the US election campaign
US President Donald Trump has been infected with COVID-19. This has put a new spin on the US election campaign as it enters the finishing straight – at least at first glance. In fact, last week’s televised debate had already pointed the way to the likely result.
A US election but no president?
The election on 3 November to determine who will be the next US president will be staged under exceptional circumstances. The fact that the vote happens to be taking place during a global pandemic is just one of the challenges.
Three scenarios for the outcome of the US election
Is Joe Biden going to win the US presidential election race or will Donald Trump come out on top once again? Whether the next US government will be led by Democrats or Republicans has far-reaching implications for the capital markets.
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